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Laos's 2016 ASEAN chairmanship will be challenging

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Subject

Outlook for Laos's 2016 chairmanship of ASEAN.

Significance

Laos chairs ASEAN in 2016, its second chairmanship. Yet 2016 promises a more demanding and complex chairmanship for Vientiane than 2004.

Impacts

  • Minor advances in implementing the Declaration on the Code of Conduct over the South China Sea are possible.
  • Yet the Code itself will not be agreed in 2016.
  • Laos-US ties will expand in 2016.
  • Beijing-Washington competition over Laos as a proxy for their regional influence will grow.
  • Indonesia and Malaysia will probably drive ASEAN's anti-ISG efforts in 2016.

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