Pre-election repression in Equatorial Guinea to rise

Subject

Political economy outlook for Equatorial Guinea.

Significance

Ahead of presidential elections next year, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema has introduced a raft of reforms aimed at managing the fallout of the oil price slump. Changes include raising additional tax revenues and cutting expenditure, particularly on fuel subsidies. By worsening living conditions, such measures provide fertile ground for opposition activists, though the prospects for regime change are dim.

Impacts

• French investigations into alleged money laundering by Obiang's son will further sour Malabo's relations with European states.
• Initiatives to simplify and fast-track visitor visas may help to grow the otherwise tiny tourism industry.
• High-end construction projects in the president's birthplace, Mongomo, will heighten popular grievances over inequality.