EU's Schengen area is likely to unravel

Significance

Greece's move put off reported attempts by some EU countries to have the country suspended from the 26-state Schengen single-travel area. However, this year's refugee and migrant crisis, plus the November 13 Paris terror attacks, have exposed fundamental flaws in the Schengen system.

Impacts

• New controls on the cross-border movement of goods and people within Schengen will add to business uncertainty and costs.
• Increased security screening at Schengen external borders will increase the premium on information-sharing, where EU states' record is poor.
• Greater integration of border, asylum and security policies would require high levels of trust among EU states.
• With the European Commission expecting as many as 3 million migrant arrivals in 2016, the EU may face an ongoing humanitarian crisis.