French response to Paris attacks raises complications

Significance

In response to the November 13 Paris terror attacks, President Francois Hollande has embarked on a ramping-up of security and intelligence powers and resources, and a new military and diplomatic effort to defeat ISG in the Middle East. However, France has yet to clarify how it will finance these measures, confirm the support of its allies or establish its strategy to defeat ISG. France's response represents an assertion of French security leadership in the EU.

Impacts

• France's Gulf ties will become more delicate as it fights ISG with Russia, facing rising domestic attack but remaining key to arms sales.
• France's strengthened position in the EU will increase pressures for fiscal policy relaxation, against German stringency.
• Any French wish to see EU Russia sanctions easing, to aid Franco-Russian anti-ISG cooperation, could run into US and German complications.
• The French authorities' response will raise civil liberties questions.
• Arguably, the handling of France's Muslim population remains the most significant issue.