Boko Haram strains under a resurgent Nigerian army

Significance

One consequence is that insurgents are retreating into neighbouring countries. Several civilians died in Boko Haram attacks in Niger's Diffa region on November 11 and Chad declared a state of emergency on November 9 in its far-north Lake Chad region.

Impacts

• The significance of Boko Haram's pledged allegiance to Islamic State group (ISG) is far less than other ISG affiliates.
• The recent Abuja bombings, while claimed by ISG-affiliated militants, resemble previous attacks and signal no tactical or resource shifts.
• Boko Haram's increasingly weak position in Nigeria would hamper efforts to make any such link meaningful.