Ryan speakership is unlikely to unify US Republicans

Significance

Ryan's predecessor, John Boehner, was driven to resign by hardliner members of the House Republican Conference. Party disunity during the Boehner speakership led to legislative gridlock, political brinkmanship and repeated threats of a government shutdown, which occurred in October 2013. A majority of voters blamed the Republicans for the 2013 shutdown and the federal elections in 2016 add a degree of urgency to Ryan's unifying mission in the House.

Impacts

• Ryan will lose political capital in negotiations ahead of the December 11 government shutdown deadline.
• Inaction on immigration reform in Congress will boost Democrats in the 2016 elections with the Latino vote.
• Republicans do not seek a greater US role in Syria and Iraq, and will limit themselves to criticism of the White House.