Belarusian pension system is long-term vulnerability

Subject

Belarus's pension system.

Significance

President Alexander Lukashenka won the October 11 election to secure a fifth term in office, and while the poll passed off peacefully with no repeat of the 2010 protests, the Belarusian leader will be increasingly concerned by the nation's economic situation. Belarus's state-run pension system provides nearly 2.7 million recipients with pensions; in addition to these pensions, the Social Security Fund (SSF) also pays maternity leave. The sheer number of the recipients, out of a population of 9.47 million (2014), makes the pension system a potent political tool for Lukashenka but also a major liability.

Impacts

• Lukashenka will increasingly court Chinese investment and Asia Pacific ties to boost the economy.
• A major collapse in the pension system would heighten the risk of significant social unrest.
• Raising the pension age may become an increasingly talked-about issue in Belarus, but will be very controversial.