Russian direct Afghan intervention is unlikely for now

Significance

Fear of Afghanistan-related instability spilling into Central Asia has already prompted the Kremlin to announce that it will reinforce its military presence in Tajikistan.

Impacts

• Its Central Asian military build-up will aid Russian regional prestige, dented by financial woes and contagion issues.
• Central Asian authorities may use Afghanistan worries to justify repressive domestic policies.
• Turkmenistan may seek new security partners and rethink its permanent neutrality status.