Islamic State global expansion builds resilience

Subject

Islamic State group's expansion prospects

Significance

Over the past sixteen months, the international community has focused its campaign to counter the Islamic State group (ISG) primarily on Iraq and Syria. This approach overlooks ISG's accelerating regional affiliate programme, which gives ISG strategic resiliency outside of its "caliphate" within the two main countries. A strategy to defeat ISG cannot succeed without addressing its formal affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Impacts

• ISG's affiliate in Egypt will rekindle ties with extremist groups on mainland Egypt in order to launch more attacks.
• ISG will encourage new supporters globally to launch spectacular terrorist attacks.
• Russia's escalation in Syria will aid ISG's expansion by degrading the Syrian opposition and ensuring the continuation of the civil war.