External push for polls deepens CAR instability

Significance

The plan to hold presidential and parliamentary elections was scuppered by renewed violence in the capital, Bangui, in late September. Violent incidents have continued, orchestrated by the varied militias that have formed since the rebel takeover in March 2013. They seek to challenge efforts by the weak administration of President Catherine Samba-Panza and the UN to end the transitional period.

Impacts

• Chad may intervene again if it sees evidence that its own rebels are mobilising in CAR border areas.
• However, the presence of international forces in the CAR should prevent wider regional instability.
• Congo-Brazzaville's president benefits from his CAR mediation role, somewhat bolstering his effort to remove domestic term limits.