Islamic State stirs Maghreb counterterrorism crackdown

Significance

Security operations and arrests have increased across the Maghreb with countries facing a heightened threat from a combination of local militant groups and cells, returning fighters from jihad in Syria, and civil war in Libya.

Impacts

• Increasing arrests and expanded police powers risks greater abuses by security forces that could reinforce anti-government sentiment.
• Low global energy prices and security risks dampen foreign investor enthusiasm in Algeria and Tunisia.
• Radical ideology will continue attracting new recruits as long as the conflicts in Syria and Libya persist.