UAE will pursue foreign activism despite rising risks

Significance

UAE forces were vital to the coalition's taking of Aden and southern Yemen from Huthi control in July. The UAE's strong military commitment to the Saudi-led drive to roll back the Huthis is part of the Gulf state's more assertive and interventionist policy as it seeks to contain Iranian and Islamist influence in the post-2011 Middle East. However, greater interventionism brings with it significant risks for the UAE, particularly for its military capabilities, international standing and political stability.

Impacts

• The UAE's strong record on external humanitarian intervention will facilitate international reconstruction efforts in Yemen.
• In the longer term, Abu Dhabi will seek a greater decision-making role in internal Yemeni affairs.
• Relations with Saudi Arabia may face strain if UAE fighting capabilities continues to outshine those of Saudi troops and Yemeni militias.
• Gulf unity may begin to fray if the Yemen campaign returns to stalemate or coalition casualties mount.