Federal stakes escalate as Somalia's 2016 shift looms

Significance

The parliament has emerged as a channel for critics of a presidency characterised by an assertive interpretation of its mandate. Parliament has also served as a platform for criticism of the federal member state formation process -- particularly in the case of Jubbaland. These tensions are becoming critical as the federal government enters the final year of its mandate, during which an indirect election mechanism must be agreed between federal and regional elites.

Impacts

• Pressure from donors and neighbouring states focuses on ensuring a 2016 transition, and trying to limit infighting.
• Corruption allegations, central to the impeachment motion, have constrained Western aid flows, blunting donor influence.
• The federal government depends on external military support amid divisions between pro-government militias.