Turkey's Kurdish guerrilla war will not end soon

Significance

This is one of the few successes the military have had on the ground since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ended the ceasefire with the PKK on July 24.

Impacts

• The Turkish state will sustain heavy daily casualties inviting ever-stronger retaliation, although what shape this may take is not clear.
• Despite attacks on it from government politicians, the HDP will retain enough support to get into the next parliament.
• The struggle with Islamic State group will take second place in government eyes to fighting the PKK.
• There will be strains between the PKK and HDP, but probably no overt split between them ın the short term.