Turkey's counterterrorism policy risks more violence

Significance

The meeting follows Turkey's launch of military strikes on July 24 against Islamic State group (ISG) in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Although Ankara says it is pursuing a broader strategy against terrorism, it has two asymmetrical goals. Against ISG, its measures remain largely defensive in nature, including driving ISG from the border and reducing the threat of blowback inside Turkey. Against the PKK, they appear more ambitious and appear designed to crush the organisation and use force rather than dialogue to resolve the demands of Turkey's Kurds for greater cultural and political rights.

Impacts

• The US-led coalition may move the main platform for its air campaign in Syria and Iraq to Turkey, reducing flying times to targets.
• Ankara is likely to stop short of deploying ground troops in Syria.
• ISG may retaliate inside Turkey, particularly against its tourism sector.
• AKP may abandon coalition negotiations and go for the nationalist vote to recover its majority in early elections, possibly in November.
• Crackdown on ISG activities inside Turkey could weaken the group in Syria.