Mining roadblocks stifle Guinea post-Ebola recovery

Subject

Outlook for the mining sector in Guinea.

Significance

Ahead of presidential polls in October and amid predictions that the economy will contract by 0.3% this year, President Alpha Conde is prioritising mining sector reform. Through greater state participation, he hopes to secure local development benefits. However, the sector remains frustrated by inadequate infrastructure, low commodity prices and investor unease, recently exacerbated by the Ebola crisis.

Impacts

• Popular avoidance of clinics over Ebola-linked fears will undermine malaria diagnosis and treatment, driving up fatalities.
• The likely tie-up between Camara, Diallo and Sidya Toure could create a united front against Conde, posing a real electoral threat.
• However, Camara's indictment for a 2009 massacre, issued on July 8, could complicate his ability to campaign on the ground.
• Mobilisation along ethnic lines could escalate rhetoric ahead of polls, raising the risk of inter-group violence.