If Turkey's parties form a coalition, it may be brief

Significance

The former ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is regaining the politcal ascendancy, with its sights focused on early elections. It wants a caretaker government until then. Its best chance of forming one looks like a deal with the Republican People's Party (CHP), whose top echelons are eager for a spell in government after years in the wilderness.

Impacts

• A second general election later this year, or perhaps next, is more likely than a durable coalition.
• If there are fresh elections, AKP could regain its overall working majority, though probably only by a narrow margin.
• Opposition parties' inability to cooperate to form an alternative government means they will have little impact on national policies.
• President Erdogan will continue ruling as de facto executive president without too much regard for legal or constitutional detail.
• With no sign of the two-thirds majority needed to change the system, Erdogan's position is over-extended and potentially vulnerable.