Afghanistan's Badakhshan threatens Tajikistan security

Significance

These are the latest violent incidents in a worsening security situation in Afghanistan. Recent months have seen fighting extend more widely. On June 30, suicide attackers targeted NATO forces in a further Kabul attack. Additionally, violence in northern Kunduz province has also sparked alarm. However, it is not only Afghanistan but also Tajikistan that is worried by recent events. On June 6-7, heavy fighting erupted in the Yamgan district of Afghanistan's Badakhshan province. Afghanistan's Badakhshan is part of the wider historical Badakhshan region, with Tajikistan's part referred to as the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO).

Impacts

• Security operations in Khorog (GBAO) and limits placed on foreigners will alienate people in GBAO and exacerbate economic woes.
• Growing concerns about militant border activity are likely to encourage Dushanbe to strengthen ties with Moscow.
• Alarming falls in Tajikistan remittance payments may start to exacerbate tensions.