Impeachment vote could spur fresh crisis in Madagascar

Subject

Political outlook for Madagascar.

Significance

The parliamentary speaker claims that on May 27 members of the house voted in a majority to impeach President Hery Rajaonarimampianina, accusing him of "constitutional violations" and incompetence. The impeachment effort was likely designed to prevent the president from dissolving the legislature and calling fresh elections -- as recommended recently by a national reconciliation body. The move to remove the president risks plunging Madagascar back into the type of politial crisis that characterised the 2009-13 period.

Impacts

• Crop damage caused by a January cyclone, combined with a locust plague, may make 25% of the population food insecure.
• Legal wrangles following the impeachment vote will cloud relations with donors, possibly weakening coordination on food relief provision.
• Relief spending may cause higher than expected fiscal and current account deficits -- currently projected at 2.1% and 11.0% respectively.
• Stalling reforms affecting fuel subsidies, public sector wages and transfers to state enterprises means extra fiscal space is unlikely.