Iraq's war against Islamic State will extend into 2017

Significance

The province's capital, Ramadi, fell to ISG on May 17 after the group launched a knock-out blow against embattled Iraqi Security Force (ISF) units. These units had been fighting intensively for nearly eighteen months and were on the point of exhaustion when ISG launched its offensive on the city, carrying out 30 suicide truck bombs in a matter of days. ISF exhaustion combined with ISG shock tactics meant that a thousand jihadists were able to outfight government forces.

Impacts

• Iraq will remain in a state of high-intensity conflict into 2017.
• Sunni Arabs will be incorporated into the Iraqi army and paramilitary units.
• The National Guard initiative will cause controversy among Iraqi factions.
• The US military is likely to intensify airpower and special forces presence in Iraq.
• The conflict will set back oil and gas development, such as new licensing rounds and Kirkuk oil field.