Russia will increase covert Baltic interference

Significance

In line with such concerns, Estonia held a large military exercise, Hedgehog, on May 4-15, involving 13,000 troops. On May 6, Lithuania launched Lightning Strike, a military exercise involving 3,000 troops in a simulated defence of the country's new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at Klaipeda. In December, Latvia said Russian submarines had approached its maritime borders more than 50 times in the past year. However, Russia's more overt activities also pose a major risk to the Baltics.

Impacts

• Russian intelligence will continue to target not just Baltic secrets but, through them, NATO and EU ones.
• Russian operations will aim to create division by playing on discontent within sizeable ethnic Russian minorities who feel marginalised.
• NATO will increase the rate and size of Baltic drills to reassure the Baltic states.