Oman's next sultan will face greater social challenges

Subject

Challenges for Oman's next sultan.

Significance

After more than seven months in Germany undergoing medical treatment, Sultan Qaboos Bu Sa'id finally returned to Oman on March 23. Qaboos has ruled the country for 45 years and enjoys enormous personal loyalty among Omanis. However, his successor is likely to face a much rockier time in power -- he will lack Qaboos's legitimacy, but will also need to face up to Oman's worsening economic situation, which will present serious challenges even to a capable new sultan.

Impacts

• Social protests are likely to become more frequent under Qaboos's successor if he fails to tackle economic problems.
• Despite his weaker position, the next sultan will remain the most powerful actor in the Omani political system.
• Oman will maintain its distinctive regional policy, maintaining close ties with both Iran and Arab Gulf states.