COP21 will reach weak global climate agreement

Subject

Climate change and the Paris accord.

Significance

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), also known as the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the UN Convention on Climate Change, will take place in Paris in December. Its goal is drafting a successor to the expired Kyoto Protocol, in the form of the first universal climate agreement, which should enter into force in 2020 at the latest. In the coming months, UN parties will put forward their proposed emissions reduction targets for the Paris summit. As of May 1, only Switzerland, Russia, Gabon, the United States, Mexico, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Norway and the EU had disclosed their official intentions, representing around 17% of all parties to the negotiations and only 30% of global emissions.

Impacts

• Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris text is likely to be an 'accord' instead of a 'treaty', meaning that its legal power will be weak.
• The mitigation commitments put on the table so far are insufficient to spare humanity from the consequences of climate change.
• Climate resilience becomes an ever-urgent goal to be advanced in Paris; adaptation costs will be high in future decades.
• The Paris summit will need to deliver a global insurance scheme covering loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries.