Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

Subject

The political outlook after the 'departement' elections.

Significance

Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right.

Impacts

• Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms.
• Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months.
• As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform.
• Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.