Commercial interest to shape Angola military strategy

Subject

Angola's military outlook.

Significance

Angola's military possesses the financial resources, personnel and equipment to be a regional hegemon and influence political outcomes across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, the scale of its security sector reflects the military's legacy role in securing and maintaining the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola's (MPLA) domestic political power -- not a desire to shape regional affairs.

Impacts

• Pretoria's strained military budget means it is likely to encourage Luanda to play a larger regional role -- but success is unlikely.
• Owing to Angolan reticence, South Africa will remain the main driver of joint regional military initiatives.
• However, its limited capacity means the region will continue to rely largely on mediation instead of intervention to maintain peace.