US-led air campaign will shape long-term fight in Iraq

Significance

The United States and Iran are both fighting against ISG in Iraq, but their rivalry elsewhere, such as taking opposite sides in Syria and Yemen, and historic enmity has prevented explicit cooperation. They are likely to be the two most significant external actors in helping Baghdad reclaim Iraqi territory from ISG.

Impacts

• The symbolic impact of capturing Tikrit would be significant, but its actual impact on the wider military campaign will be limited.
• It would provide Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi time to prepare Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to a greater level of readiness.
• However, rapid success of militia forces could lead to even more difficult political choices.