Prospects for Europe in the second quarter

Subject

Prospects for Europe in the second quarter.

Significance

This quarter will see highly contentious, high-stakes politics that could shape the future of the EU for years to come. First, a decision point is fast approaching that will determine whether Greece will continue to receive bailouts or be cut off from EU support, default on its debt and -- potentially -- exit the euro-area. Second, the United Kingdom could re-elect a Conservative government, which would then follow through on its vow to hold an 'in-out' referendum on EU membership by 2017. Finally, the EU faces a crucial test of unity against its greatest external threat -- Russia.