Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Political forces have emerged seeking to emulate anti-austerity parties in Greece and Spain, but Portugal's party system has so far proved resilient. Still, Portugal is not impervious to change: voters show increasing signs of being willing to vote away from the dominant parties. The eventual winner of this year's legislative elections is likely to be weaker and face a more fragmented parliament -- as well as a reopening of the issue of debt restructuring.
- Elections in Portugal look set to diminish but maintain the two-party dominance that has prevailed since democratisation in the mid-1970s.
- Polls point to a PS victory, returning the party to power after its defeat in 2011, but without an outright majority.
- The PS has yet to make deals with parties to its left when it needs a parliamentary majority.
- However, its new leader has made equivocal statements that suggest he may be open to such alliances.