Prospects for the global economy in the second quarter.
Heightened geopolitical risk undermines the potential for any short-term strengthening of world economic activity. In the second quarter, global growth should be similar to that experienced in early 2015. Over the first half of this year, it will remain in the 3.0-3.5% range, similar to the 2014 growth rate of 3.3%. Many countries remain vulnerable to international tensions: there will be no early recovery in the commodity-producing economies of the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, or in Eastern Europe.