Russian foreign intelligence effectiveness will suffer

Subject

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service.

Significance

President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that according to Russian intelligence, the United States was already supplying military equipment to Ukraine. While the overt conflict in Donbas has raged, behind the scenes the covert struggle between Russia and the West has been intensifying. Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is highly active and currently enjoying a resurgence in its political fortunes. However, it is doubtful whether it is playing an especially positive role in framing Kremlin policy. The SVR is Russia's direct equivalent to the CIA and the UK Secret Intelligence Service, and generally operates out of Russian embassies with most officers working under diplomatic cover. It also operates a large network of so-called 'illegals' who have no diplomatic immunity.

Impacts

• The SVR will continue to seek to expand its operations, especially so long as its resources remain protected.
• It will concentrate especially on Europe, seeking to foment divisions within and between members of NATO and the EU.
• SVR will continue to struggle for political traction in Moscow, requiring it to reflect the official line and leap on the latest bandwagon.