West Africa move against militants poses blowback risk

Significance

Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase.

Impacts

• Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region.
• The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities.
• The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.