Constitutional reforms -- and their political and economic implications.
The Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) began work on a new charter in January, after receiving 246 recommendations from 18 panels of the National Reform Council (NRC). Although the NRC was charged with considering political, economic and social reforms, the first are pre-eminent; other reforms may be consigned to the new parliament after elections, currently due in early 2016. The draft constitution would task a new reform committee within parliament to craft these other reforms.
- Martial law is unlikely to be lifted until the junta has secured its 'reforms', reducing risk to global supply chains.
- The powers of independent state institutions will be curbed, creating new risks for political dissidents and activists.
- Regulatory and contractual uncertainty is an abiding risk to businesses; it will outlive the next polls.