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Syriza may be troika's best hope for Greek deal

Monday, February 16, 2015

Subject

Unexpected outcomes in the Greece-troika imbroglio.

Significance

Negotiations between Greece and its 'troika' of official-sector creditors (the European Commission, ECB and IMF) are taking place amid two meetings of the euro-area finance ministers and one summit of EU leaders before the end of February. While it is impossible to know now what the result will be, it is possible to speculate on the costs and benefits of any given scenario.

Impacts

  • If Syriza fails to achieve meaningful debt reduction, it could discredit the political left as well as the notion of EU solidarity.
  • Greek sovereign yields and the Greek stock market are likely to react extremely positively to any deal between the troika and Greece.
  • Financial market exuberance towards Greece will be unwound as the implications of Greece's continuing high debt load become clearer.
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