Jordan will stand firm in anti-Islamic State coalition

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Significance

The pilot had been in captivity since his plane crashed near the ISG stronghold of Raqqa in Syria on December 24 while taking part in international coalition airstrikes against the group. Jordan's role in the coalition is particularly sensitive given its proximity to ISG-controlled areas and high levels of domestic unpopularity at its participation in the US-led alliance. Kasaesbeh's capture and brutal murder raise questions over Jordan's continuing commitment to the coalition, and of the threat ISG poses to the kingdom.

Impacts

  • Public horror at the killing will help keep ISG at the top of international government's Middle East policy-making agendas.
  • Global jihadist criticism of the brutal method of killing may see ISG lose some support, and may benefit its rival, al-Qaida.
  • Other Arab members of the anti-ISG coalition will remain committed in the short run, but seek to scale back their role in the longer term.
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