Philippines infrastructure outlay may slow after 2016

Subject

Outlook for public-private partnerships.

Significance

Over the next 18 months, President Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino's administration intends to bid out seven new public-private partnership (PPP) projects. Under Aquino, government spending as a share of GDP has declined while tax revenues have grown faster than expenditure. Aquino has pursued greater transparency and accountability in public spending, also vital to improving Philippines credit ratings. Yet the emphasis on probity and oversight of public spending has slowed PPP approvals, hindering Aquino's ambitious infrastructure development programme, itself integral to his anti-poverty drive.

Impacts

• Aquino's anti-poverty drive may suffer from constrained infrastructure spending.
• Investors may lose confidence if Aquino cannot successfully bid out new infrastructure projects.
• Both factors may accelerate the onset of Aquino's 'lame duck' presidential period.