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Libya talks will go on regardless of Congress decision

Monday, January 19, 2015

Significance

The first condition is to move the location of the talks from Geneva to Ghat. The second is that the other attendees recognise the Supreme Court ruling of November 2014, which held that the process that led to the election in June 2014 of the Tobruk-based parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR), was unconstitutional. Initial talks took place on January 14-16 and dialogue is due to restart this week. Both main factions, the Dignity-backed HoR and the Dawn-supported GNC, have called for ceasefires, but not all factions within those blocs have accepted them. Still, this is the first time ceasefires have been called since fighting between the two main competing blocs escalated following the Supreme Court ruling.

Impacts

  • Despite the talks, regional states will still be inclined to provide direct support for a proxy that serves their geopolitical interests.
  • Fighting for control of oil installations will severely restrict the flow of revenues.
  • This could prompt the factions to apply more pressure on the National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank.
  • If dialogue fails it will intensify the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.
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