Cautious Colombia economic optimism prevails in 2015

Subject

The growth outlook for 2015.

Significance

The pace of GDP growth declined slightly to 4.2% in the third quarter of 2014, according to the national statistics agency. Since the start of the second half of 2014 a significant supply shock in global oil and coal production -- Colombia's main export goods -- contributed to the slowdown in growth and resulted in the first negative balance of trade since 2007, accumulating a current account deficit of 4.4% of GDP.

Impacts

• Private consumption will likely slow as growing global uncertainty and low commodity prices affect consumer and investor confidence.
• Public investment should remain stable, supported by 4G infrastructure projects, housing and the recent tax reform.
• The trade deficit will persist as net exports are expected to decline further, representing a drag on GDP.