On fluctuating characteristics of global COVID-19 cases and identification of inflection points
ISSN: 0737-8831
Article publication date: 4 May 2021
Issue publication date: 13 September 2021
Abstract
Purpose
The emergence of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has had a tremendous impact on the world, and the characteristics of its evolution need to be better understood.
Design/methodology/approach
To explore the changes of cases and control them effectively, this paper analyzes and models the fluctuation and dynamic characteristics of the daily growth rate based on the data of newly confirmed cases around the world. Based on the data, the authors identify the inflection points and analyze the causes of the new daily confirmed cases and deaths worldwide.
Findings
The study found that the growth sequence of the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day has a significant cluster of fluctuations. The impact of previous fluctuations in the future is gradually attenuated and shows a relatively gentle long-term downward trend. There are four inflection points in the global time series of new confirmed cases and the number of deaths per day. And these inflection points show the state of an accelerated rise, a slowdown in the rate of decline, a slowdown in the rate of growth and an accelerated decline in turn.
Originality/value
This paper has a certain guiding and innovative significance for the dynamic research of COVID-19 cases in the world.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11905042), the Youth Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences Research for the Ministry of Education (No. 16YJC630022, 20YJC870005), Funded Project of “333 Talent Project” in Hebei Province (No. A202001015), and Key Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research for the Colleges and Universities of Hebei Province (No. SD2021017).
Citation
Feng, X., Zhang, H., Zhang, Y., Sun, L., Li, J. and Wu, Y. (2021), "On fluctuating characteristics of global COVID-19 cases and identification of inflection points", Library Hi Tech, Vol. 39 No. 3, pp. 888-902. https://doi.org/10.1108/LHT-10-2020-0263
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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