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Development of an approach to incorporate proportional hazard modelling into a risk-based inspection methodology

Nzita Alain Lelo (Department of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
P. Stephan Heyns (Department of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)
Johann Wannenburg (Department of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering

ISSN: 1355-2511

Article publication date: 7 March 2022

Issue publication date: 7 March 2023

135

Abstract

Purpose

Industry decision makers often rely on a risk-based approach to perform inspection and maintenance planning. According to the Risk-Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedure project for the European industry, risk has two main components: probability of failure (PoF) and consequence of failure (CoF). As one of these risk drivers, a more accurate estimation of the PoF will contribute to a more accurate risk assessment. Current methods to estimate the PoF are either time-based or founded on expert judgement. This paper suggests an approach that incorporates the proportional hazards model (PHM), which is a statistical procedure to estimate the risk of failure for a component subject to condition monitoring, into the risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology, so that the PoF estimation is enhanced to optimize inspection policies.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the overall goal of this paper, a case study applying the PHM to determine the PoF for the real-time condition data component is discussed. Due to a lack of published data for risk assessment at this stage of the research, the case study considered here uses failure data obtained from the simple but readily available Intelligent Maintenance Systems bearing data, to illustrate the methodology.

Findings

The benefit of incorporating PHM into the RBI approach is that PHM uses real-time condition data, allowing dynamic decision-making on inspection and maintenance planning. An additional advantage of the PHM is that where traditional techniques might not give an accurate estimation of the remaining useful life to plan inspection, the PHM method has the ability to consider the condition as well as the age of the component.

Research limitations/implications

This paper is proposing the development of an approach to incorporate the PHM into an RBI methodology using bearing data to illustrate the methodology. The CoF estimation is not addressed in this paper.

Originality/value

This paper presents the benefits related to the use of PHM as an approach to optimize the PoF estimation, which drives to the optimal risk assessment, in comparison to the time-based approach.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Funding: The first author, Nzita Alain Lelo, is pleased to acknowledge the bursary funding from Anglo American Platinum.

Citation

Lelo, N.A., Stephan Heyns, P. and Wannenburg, J. (2023), "Development of an approach to incorporate proportional hazard modelling into a risk-based inspection methodology", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 29 No. 1, pp. 265-285. https://doi.org/10.1108/JQME-04-2021-0030

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited

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