A machine learning analysis of the value-added intellectual coefficient’s effect on firm performance

Abstract

Purpose

Recently, machine learning (ML) methods gained popularity in finance and accounting research as alternatives to econometric analysis. Their success in high-dimensional settings is promising as a cure for the shortcomings of econometric analysis. The purpose of this study is to prove further the relationship between intellectual capital (IC) efficiency and firm performance using ML methods.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the double selection, partialing-out and cross-fit partialing-out LASSO estimators to analyze the IC efficiency’s linear and nonlinear effects on firm performance using a sample of 2,581 North American firms from 1999 to 2021. The value-added intellectual capital (VAIC) and its components are used as indicators of IC efficiency. Firm performance is measured by return on equity, return on assets and market-to-book ratio.

Findings

The findings revealed significant connections between IC measures and firm performance. First, the VAIC, as an aggregate measure, significantly impacts both firm profitability and value. When the VAIC is decomposed into its breakdowns, it is revealed that structural capital efficiency substantially affects firm value, and capital employed efficiency has the same function for firm profitability. In contrast to the prevalent belief in the area, human capital efficiency’s impact is found to be less important than the others. Nonlinearities are also detected in the relationships.

Originality/value

As ML tools are most recently introduced to the IC literature, only a few studies have used them to expand the current knowledge. However, none of these studies investigated the role of IC as a determinant of firm performance. The present study fills this gap in the literature by investigating the effect of IC efficiency on firm performance using supervised ML methods. It also provides a novel approach by comparing the estimation results of three LASSO estimators. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that has used LASSO in IC research.

Citation

Bilgin, R. (2024), "A machine learning analysis of the value-added intellectual coefficient’s effect on firm performance", Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-10-2023-0253