Comparing the hedge and safe haven properties of individual commodities for China and United States equity sectors

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to scrutinize the safe haven benefits of 13 individual commodities for the USA and Chinese equity sectors during the financial turmoil period. Therefore, sectoral investors in the USA and China could invest in those specific commodities that provide stable returns during the health crisis and financial turmoil periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The daily data spans from February 1, 2015, to July 28, 2022. The present study applies several different approaches to analyzing the data set. The author apply the cross-quantilogram (C.Q) methodology to capture the lead-lag bivariate quantile interdependence between two stationary time series variables during the bearish, bullish and normal periods. Then the study used the hedging effectiveness (HE) and conditional diversification benefits (CDB) approaches to capture the hedging and diversification benefits of commodity classes and individual commodities.

Findings

The noteworthy findings of the quantilogram methodology reveal that livestock and agriculture commodities serve as better refuges as compared to the precious metals and energy index in both countries. On average, precious metals failed to serve as safe haven investments for the USA and Chinese equity market sectors. All energy commodities except soybean oil had strong comovements with China and the US equity sectors during bearish, bullish and normal periods. Lean hogs, fiddler cattle and live cattle are perfect hedging assets for both countries due to the presence of blue color at normal and bullish periods in all C.Q heat-maps. The HE table depicts that commodity indices and individual commodities failed to serve as hedging assets for the Chinese equity sectors. But commodities are semistrong hedging assets for the US equity sectors and the S&P 500 due to the average HE values being 0.7 and above. The CDB values depict that precious metals provide diversification benefits in both equity markets.

Practical implications

The present study results have important implications for equity sector investors of the USA and China in suggesting particular commodity during the financial turmoil period. During the bearish market condition, risk averse equity sector investors can invest in livestock commodities and agriculture commodities, due to their relatively stable returns. In addition, policymakers can use the analysis insights to formulate policy tools and monitoring mechanisms, effectively mitigating the unfavorable effects arising from asymmetric dependence between commodities and equity sectors during the upper tail, middle and lower tail. Policymakers can suggest equity investors to invest in which commodity during extreme conditions.

Originality/value

The current study has the following points of originality. First, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the individual commodities’ roles as safe havens taken from all four major commodity classes. More importantly, it is also noticeable that the safe haven abilities of commodities are usually tested for the stock market, but the equity sectors are ignored. Therefore, the present study used both stock market and sectoral indices data.

Citation

Siddique, A. (2024), "Comparing the hedge and safe haven properties of individual commodities for China and United States equity sectors", Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 16 No. 5, pp. 626-655. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2024-0057