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Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment: Evidence from Brazil considering the bank lending channel

Gabriel Caldas Montes (Department of Economics, Fluminense Federal University, Niterói, Brazil)
Gabriel Gonçalves do Vale Monteiro (Department of Economics, Fluminense Federal University, Niterói, Brazil)

Journal of Economic Studies

ISSN: 0144-3585

Article publication date: 10 November 2014

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of prudential regulation and monetary policies on the supply of credit as well as the influence of such policies on the aggregate investment through the credit channel in Brazil.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis is based on estimates through ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized method of moments (GMM), system of equations through GMM (system-GMM), and impulse response functions through vector autoregressive (VAR).

Findings

The results suggest that monetary policies and prudential regulation affect aggregate investment through the bank lending channel. With regards to elasticities, the findings indicate that the credit is very sensitive to variations in economic activity and, in turn, prudential regulation presents a stronger influence on credit than the basic interest rate and the reserve requirement rate. Moreover, the estimates suggest that aggregate investment is more sensitive to entrepreneurs’ expectations and credit supply.

Practical implications

Aiming to reduce systemic risk in the economy, capital requirements may be increased in order to induce banks to a lower risk exposure by reducing the supply of loans. However, while this instrument strengthens the banking system, it can also lead the banking system to become less sensitive to monetary policy shocks, and also discourage aggregate demand through the influence that the credit exerts on investments. As a consequence, prudential regulation is an important tool because it acts on the balance between economic growth and low risk exposure of banks.

Originality/value

The paper provides useful insights to academicians, economists and policymakers who are interested in understanding the effects of monetary policies and prudential regulation on aggregate investment through the credit channel in an emerging economy under inflation targeting. Moreover, the paper develops a theoretical model in order to show the influence of different monetary policies, as well as the influence of prudential regulation on the supply of credit.

Keywords

Citation

Montes, G.C. and Monteiro, G.G.d.V. (2014), "Monetary policy, prudential regulation and investment: Evidence from Brazil considering the bank lending channel", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 41 No. 6, pp. 881-906. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2012-0173

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited