Interest rate forecasts in Latin America

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to assess the quality of interest rate forecasts for the money markets in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Venezuela for the period between 2001 and 2019. Future interest rate trends are of key significance for many business-related decisions. Thus, reliable interest rate forecasts are essential, for example, for banks that make profits by carrying out maturity transformations.

Design/methodology/approach

The data that we analyze were collected by Consensus Economics through a monthly survey with over 120 renowned economists and were published between 2001 and 2019 in the journal Latin American Consensus Forecasts. The authors use the Diebold-Mariano test, the sign accuracy test, the TOTA coefficient and the unbiasedness test to determine the precision and biasedness of the forecasts.

Findings

The research reveals that the forecasting work carried out in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is remarkably successful. The quality of forecasts from Argentina and Venezuela, on the other hand, is significantly poorer.

Originality/value

Over 50 studies have already been published with regard to the accuracy of interest rate forecasts, emphasizing the importance of the topic. However, interest rate forecasts for Latin American money markets have hardly been considered thus far. The paper closes this research gap. Overall, the analyzed database amounts to a total of 209 forecast time series with 28,451 individual interest rate forecasts. This study is thus far more comprehensive than all previous studies.

Citation

Filiz, I., Judek, J.R., Lorenz, M. and Spiwoks, M. (2022), "Interest rate forecasts in Latin America", Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 49 No. 5, pp. 920-936. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2021-0108