Day-ahead load forecasting using improved grey Verhulst model

Abstract

Purpose

In the daily energy dispatch process in a power system, accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is a very important tool used by spot market players. It is a critical requirement for optimal generator unit commitment, economic dispatch, system security and stability assessment, contingency and ancillary services management, reserve setting, demand side management, system maintenance and financial planning in power systems. The purpose of this study is to present an improved grey Verhulst electricity load forecasting model.

Design/methodology/approach

To test the effectiveness of the proposed model for short-term load forecast, studies made use of Kenya’s load demand data for the period from January 2014 to June 2019.

Findings

The convectional grey Verhulst forecasting model yielded a mean absolute percentage error of 7.82 per cent, whereas the improved model yielded much better results with an error of 2.96 per cent.

Practical implications

In the daily energy dispatch process in a power system, accurate short-term load forecasting is a very important tool used by spot market players. It is a critical ingredient for optimal generator unit commitment, economic dispatch, system security and stability assessment, contingency and ancillary services management, reserve setting, demand side management, system maintenance and financial planning in power systems. The fact that the model uses actual Kenya’s utility data confirms its usefulness in the practical world for both economic planning and policy matters.

Social implications

In terms of generation and transmission investments, proper load forecasting will enable utilities to make economically viable decisions. It forms a critical cog of the strategic plans for power utilities and other market players to avoid a situation of heavy stranded investment that adversely impact the final electricity prices and the other extreme scenario of expensive power shortages.

Originality/value

This research combined the use of natural logarithm and the exponential weighted moving average to improve the forecast accuracy of the grey Verhulst forecasting model.

Citation

Mbae, A.M. and Nwulu, N.I. (2020), "Day-ahead load forecasting using improved grey Verhulst model", Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, Vol. 18 No. 5, pp. 1335-1348. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-12-2019-0337