Assessing the predictability of construction time overruns using multiple linear regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo
Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology
ISSN: 1726-0531
Article publication date: 13 November 2019
Issue publication date: 17 April 2020
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to focus on developing a baseline model for time overrun.
Design/methodology/approach
Information on 321 completed construction projects used to assess the predictive performance of two statistical techniques, namely, multiple regression and the Bayesian approach.
Findings
The eventual results from the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo model were observed to improve the predictive ability of the model compared with multiple linear regression. Besides the unique nuances peculiar with projects executed, the scope factors initial duration, gross floor area and number of storeys have been observed to be stable predictors of time overrun.
Originality/value
This current model contributes to improving the reliability of predicting time overruns.
Keywords
Citation
Asiedu, R.O. and Gyadu-Asiedu, W. (2020), "Assessing the predictability of construction time overruns using multiple linear regression and Markov chain Monte Carlo", Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology, Vol. 18 No. 3, pp. 583-600. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEDT-06-2019-0160
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited