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Unveiling non-communicable disease trends among Indian states: predicting health outcomes with socioeconomic and demographic factors

Varsha Shukla (Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and Science – Pilani Campus, Pilani, India)
Rahul Arora (Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and Science – Pilani Campus, Pilani, India)
Sahil Gupta (Department of Economics and Finance, Birla Institute of Technology and Science – Pilani Campus, Pilani, India)

International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy

ISSN: 0144-333X

Article publication date: 14 May 2024

Issue publication date: 12 August 2024

95

Abstract

Purpose

The present study examines the fluctuations in Socioeconomic and demographic (SED) factors and the prevalence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) across clusters of states in India. Further, it attempts to analyze the extent to which the SED determinants can serve as predictive indicators for the prevalence of NCDs.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses three rounds of unit-level National Sample Survey self-reported morbidity data for the analysis. A machine learning model was constructed to predict the prevalence of NCDs based on SED characteristics. In addition, probit regression was adopted to identify the relevant SED variables across the cluster of states that significantly impact disease prevalence.

Findings

Overall, the study finds that the disease prevalence can be reasonably predicted with a given set of SED characteristics. Also, it highlights age as the most important factor across a cluster of states in understanding the distribution of disease prevalence, followed by income, education, and marital status. Understanding these variations is essential for policymakers and public health officials to develop targeted strategies that address each state’s unique challenges and opportunities.

Originality/value

The study complements the existing literature on the interplay of SEDs with the prevalence of NCDs across diverse state-level dynamics. Its predictive analysis of NCD distribution through SED factors adds valuable depth to our understanding, making a notable contribution to the field.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers' valuable comments/suggestions in our final paper.

Citation

Shukla, V., Arora, R. and Gupta, S. (2024), "Unveiling non-communicable disease trends among Indian states: predicting health outcomes with socioeconomic and demographic factors", International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, Vol. 44 No. 9/10, pp. 901-917. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSSP-03-2024-0131

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2024, Emerald Publishing Limited

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