Russia–Ukraine conflict: 2030 Agenda for SDGs hangs in the balance

Abstract

Purpose

While the world is yet to fully recuperate from the social and economic repercussions of COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine conflict poses another major threat causing a humanitarian crisis and economic shock. Although the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its pledge to “leave no one behind” is a universal commitment to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable groups, the Russia–Ukraine ongoing conflict is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the 2030 Agenda. The purpose of this study is to provide a holistic understanding of the ramifications of the Russia–Ukraine war in SDGs progress around the world. Further, the authors shed light on how stakeholders can help engage in support of SDGs in such a challenging time.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is qualitative in nature and relies on secondary sources. The motive behind this study is to allow social and economic policy researchers and practitioners to learn from the Russia–Ukraine dispute. The authors conduct a preliminary factual analysis to determine patterns of how the conflict affects the SDGs Agenda. On this basis, the authors propose some recommendations.

Findings

While it is still early to measure the full impact of the war on crises worldwide, it is clear that the repercussions will be multi-dimensional. The authors argue that the conflict in Ukraine is severely threatening the achievement of the SDGs. As such, the authors identify patterns of this crisis that have halted progress on SDGs worldwide. Of all SDGs, the authors argue that SDG16 (i.e. peace and justice) is an absolute pre-requisite to sustaining other goals. Further, refugees should be economically empowered, resilient and sustainable food systems need to be put in place and renewable energy transition is required.

Research limitations/implications

This study serves as a springboard for future research by identifying patterns of war crises that have halted progress in achieving sustainable development worldwide. Empirical evidence needs to be conducted on the impact of this ongoing conflict on sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda.

Practical implications

This study could provide guidance to leaders and stakeholders across the globe on patterns for the impact of the Ukraine–Russia conflict on undermining global sustainable development while highlighting the need for major additional efforts to achieve the relevant SDGs.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to analyse the threats the Russia–Ukraine dispute presents to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs.

Citation

Bin-Nashwan, S.A., Hassan, M.K. and Muneeza, A. (2024), "Russia–Ukraine conflict: 2030 Agenda for SDGs hangs in the balance", International Journal of Ethics and Systems, Vol. 40 No. 1, pp. 3-16. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOES-06-2022-0136

1. Introduction

In 2015, all member states of the United Nations (UN), for the first time in history, agreed and committed to a common set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be achieved by 2030 and identified main priorities and principles for their financing. However, multiple security and health crises, amplified by biodiversity and climate crises, are now putting the SDGs Agenda at risk. The SDGs Index (Figure 1) underlines that these crises have indeed halted progress in sustainable development globally since 2019 (Sachs et al., 2022).

Although the world was clinging to some hope at the start of 2022 by taking tentative steps out of COVID-19 and towards economic recovery (Bin-Nashwan et al., 2022), the Russia–Ukraine ongoing dispute – began in February 2022 – has shocked the world, triggering a grave humanitarian and economic crisis. UN Deputy Secretary-General, Amina Mohammed, in UN Economic Commission for Europe Regional Forum for Sustainable Development 2022, has said that the Ukraine war is causing massive suffering that has halted years of progress on the 2030 Agenda for SDGs [United Nations (UN), 2022a]. Prior to this, even the unprecedented event, COVID-19 has also shown a “critical” new phase ahead for achieving sustainable development agenda (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2021). Yet, research to date has scarcely alluded to the impact of the war in Ukraine on sustainable development efforts.

The negative consequences of the Russia–Ukraine conflict extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine and Europe as a whole. The UN Development Programme [United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2022] analysed the impact of this war on the sustainable development of Africa where it is observed that the conflict occurred at a time when Africa was struggling to manage the adverse impact of the pandemic which includes deep economic regression, planetary pressures and widening inequality gap. The most critical impact of the Ukraine war could be the further worsening of the debt crisis as the countries in Africa would be unable to meet their debt obligations while the inequality between rich and poor will surge as the prices of fuel and food increase. As such, poor households would be unable to meet their needs, and thus this will further push them into poverty triggering more social tension and unrest in such communities. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2022) has proposed key priority actions to protect development gains in Africa which includes: prioritizing the immediate efforts to expand the fiscal space in African countries and stabilize African economies via enhanced bilateral assistance, innovative multilateral initiatives and debt relief, strengthening resilience to global shocks by finding alternative ways other than importing food and fuel and providing access to energy based on a just transition.

The objective of this research note is to provide a thorough understanding of the ramifications of the Russia–Ukraine war in SDGs progress around the world. Further, we explore how stakeholders can help engage in support of SDGs in such a challenging time. This paper is divided into five sections. Followed by this introduction, Section 2 presents the research methodology adopted. Section 3 focuses on SDGs, and Section 4 discusses how the Russia–Ukraine dispute affects sustainable development progress. Section 5 presents the recommendations followed by the conclusion. It is anticipated that the findings of this research will guide leaders and stakeholders across the globe on patterns for the impact of the war in Ukraine, highlighting the SDGs for which additional efforts will be needed to achieve the relevant SDGs. The study also allows social and economic policy researchers and practitioners to learn from the Russia–Ukraine dispute.

2. Methodology

The motivation behind this research note is to allow social and economic policy practitioners and researchers to learn from the Russia–Ukraine dispute. To do so, in the first step, the authors conducted a preliminary factual analysis to determine patterns of how the conflict affects the SDGs Agenda. Latest secondary sources, for example, articles, newspapers, reviews and reports, on the impact of the war on sustainable development aspects were collected using library research techniques and then analysed. Secondly, drawn from the factual analysis, the authors proposed some recommendations for urgent actions to rescue the SDGs and deliver meaningful progress for people and the planet by 2030. We based this research methodology on some studies that used similar research approaches (Muneeza and Mustapha, 2021; Ahmad and Ansary, 2017).

3. Sustainable development goals

The SDGs are a set of intergovernmental aspirations led by the UN that advocate a set of 17 goals with 169 associated targets encompassing several sustainable development issues measured by 230 various indicators [United Nations (UN), 2015]. Historically, in 1972, the UN conference on the human environment was held to consider action plans for attaining healthy and productive environments for the human family. Twenty years later, member states came up with a resolution known as “The Future We Want” at the Rio+20 Conference. Poverty reduction, health, water and sanitation, energy and human settlement are among the main themes agreed on. According to the Future We Want-outcome document, particularly Paragraph 246, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Rio+20 principles should be linked and integrated. In this regard, member states affirmed their commitment to making relentless efforts to accelerate the achievement of the MDGs by 2015. Further processes and agreements were needed to develop SDGs from 2015 to 2030. In setting a global vision for a sustainable planet, four dimensions were agreed upon, namely, inclusive economic growth, environmental sustainability, comprehensive social development as well as security and peace. The MDGs were an essential initial phase and building block for governments to guide strategies and aids for eradicating poverty and improving the lives of the most vulnerable. However, there were some criticisms levelled against MDGs for failing to attain the needs of less privileged populations (Kumar and Roy, 2018).

The newly implemented 2030 Agenda for SDGs goes beyond the MDGs, adopting key policies for alleviating poverty and sustaining global development and well-being for all. The purpose of SDGs is to effectively mitigate violence in all its forms and support communities and governments in finding lasting solutions to insecurity and conflict. To this end, it is important to strengthen the rule of law and promote human rights, as well as curb the flow of illicit arms and enhance developing countries’ participation in global governance. Human rights, stability, peace and rule of law-based effective governance are crucial channels for sustainable development. Yet, we live in an increasingly divided world; some regions are with a sustainable level of security, peace and prosperity, whereas others become engulfed in endless violence and conflict. According to the recent sustainable development reported by Sachs et al. (2022), the SDGs index shows that multiple security and health crises have halted progress on sustainable development around the world since 2019, as displayed in Figure 1.

4. How does the Russia–Ukraine dispute affect sustainable development progress?

It is argued that a high degree of insecurity and armed violence exert a devastating influence on the development of any nation. The scarce literature (Ben Hassen and El Bilali, 2022; Druce et al., 2019; Figueroa et al., 2018; Kumar and Roy, 2018; Jahanshahi et al., 2020; Takehara and Hasegawa, 2020; Werther-Pietsch, 2018) has argued that the increasing violence around the world compromises the achievement of SDGs and the well-being of all.

While it is too soon to gauge the full impact of the Russia–Ukraine war – in its early stages – on crises worldwide, it is clear that the repercussions will be multi-dimensional. As such, this conflict is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the SDGs 2030 Agenda. This study analyses how the war in Ukraine relates to the challenge of sustainable development themes.

4.1 Poverty and hunger

Prior to the war outbreak, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)(2022) estimated that most major global macro-economic variables would return to normal during 2022–2023 in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, development organisations worldwide warn that the war in Ukraine would greatly devastate the global economy, and the brunt of the harm would be on the world's poorest population (Garver, 2022). Ukraine and Russia are both key commodities producers that are traded globally, for example, wheat and other cereal grains, energy and fertiliser. As there are few or no goods passing through the two countries' Black Sea ports, export restrictions on food in Ukraine and immense economic sanctions against Russia, global supply chain disruptions are growing and creating unprecedented issues.

Consumers are unequivocally made worse by the sudden rise in food prices. World Bank researchers projected that the 2007 rise may have pushed an additional 155 million people into extreme poverty and hunger, with separate work indicating that the 2010 increase had the same effect on 44 million people. To date, increases in prices seen are already about the same extent as the increases in 2010. A recent report by the Centre for Global Development estimates that soaring food prices caused by the Ukraine war could push at least 40 million people into extreme poverty and hunger (Mitchell et al., 2022). This is evidently reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2022) which published its third consecutive food price index on 8 April 2022. As illustrated in Figure 2, the data shows that food prices are 34% greater than this time last year and it has not been this high since FAO commenced recording such information.

4.2 Health and education

The war in Ukraine is causing losses of life and catastrophic human suffering, bringing every day more dead and wounded and civilian population stories fighting to save their lives. The consequences of this dispute are extending beyond poverty and hunger, there are devastating impacts on health and education systems, as indicated by the Deputy Secretary-General of the UN (Mohammed, 2022). The impacts of this conflict on health and health care inside and outside Ukraine are expected to continue long even after this conflict ends (Zaliska et al., 2022). Health systems suffer because of damage to health infrastructures, for example, clinics and hospitals. It results in the flight of health staff, leaving understaffed health systems to deal with the increasing burden of patients triggered by the war. This is in addition to disruptions in supply chains (Lee, 2022). The World Health Organization is deeply concerned about critical medical supplies in Ukraine caused by the conflict; meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic is stressing the health system (WHO, 2022). The health consequence of conflict goes beyond Ukraine’s borders as more than six million refugees have crossed into neighbouring European countries (International Organization for Migration, 2022), straining health systems and human and technical resources in these countries.

Education is also being widely disrupted because of the crisis in Ukraine, where the education of more than 5.5 million children has been turned upside down with an average of 22 schools under attack every day, according to Save the Children (2022). With millions of Ukrainian refugees fleeing to other countries, accessing education can be a huge problem. Not only are local schools already overstretched, but refugees are often denied access to systems and services, and are unable to deal with severely traumatized children.

4.3 Gender equality

Gender equality and global peace and prosperity are inextricably linked, and to ignore that would be a fatal mistake. Globally, rapid progress towards gender equality can be seen in less than a quarter of countries, whereas one-in-three countries are either with no progress or moving in the opposite direction, according to Alison Holder, Director of Equal Measures 2030. More than three months into the conflict in Ukraine forced millions of people forcibly displaced to flee the violence, a quick new report by United Nations (UN) Women and CARE (2022) Gender Analysis has revealed that women and minorities face enormous hardships when it comes to safety and health and access to food because of this war.

Furthermore, the analysis shows that gender roles in Ukraine are rapidly changing. While males have become jobless and enlisted primarily in militaries, females are engaging in multiple new roles and jobs to offset losses in family income. Women also play pivotal roles in humanitarian responses in local communities. However, although they take on growing roles of leadership in their communities and families, women are still facing both formal and informal barriers to participation in administrative and political decision-making processes regarding humanitarian efforts, peacemaking and other matters that directly affect their lives, particularly in the war-torn countries.

4.4 Decent work, economic growth and energy

Remarkably, prospects for global growth have significantly declined because of the Russia–Ukraine dispute, which has led to a rise in food, commodity and energy prices, as well as surging inflation and a tightening position of monetary policy by major central banks. It is projected that the global economy grows by 3.1% in 2022, which is a downward revision of 0.9% compared to the previous forecast issued in January 2022 [United Nations (UN), 2022b]. The baseline forecasts are facing substantial downside risks from the escalating Ukraine–Russia conflict and potential new waves of COVID-19. Economic turmoil, combined with severe internal displacement and refugee influx, is triggering widespread losses in jobs and incomes. In the current dispute situation, a new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) indicates an estimated loss of 4.8 million jobs compared to the situation before the war. This equals 30% of employment prior to the conflict [United Nations (UN), 2022b].

The crisis in Ukraine is also threatening labour disruptions in neighbouring countries, for example, Slovakia, Romania, Poland and Moldova, where ongoing threats are forcing refugees into longer exile, putting pressure on social protection systems and labour markets and leading to high unemployment, according to the ILO (2022). These countries are among the ten top states for immigrants in Russia, and many of them send large remittances to their home countries. Sanctions imposed on Russia may result in job losses for migrant workers, and thus they might go back to their countries, causing a massive economic collapse across Africa and Central Asia. That is, the Russia–Ukraine dispute is making it harder for low- and middle-income nations, as they have not yet fully recovered from the unprecedented economic shock caused by the epidemic.

Moreover, the conflict has disrupted geopolitics and markets of energy, pushing prices of gas and oil to the greatest level in nearly a decade and prompting many governments to re-consider their energy supplies (Tollefson, 2022). Globally, Russia is the largest exporter of oil to world markets, whereas the European economies rely on Russian natural gas fuels (International Energy Agency, 2022). Governments of the European Union (EU), the USA and others have progressively imposed economic sanctions against Russia, announcing a plan to ban all imports of Russian gas and oil.

5. Recommendations

5.1 SDG16 as a core

Although the inclusion of SDG16 in sustainable development is undoubtedly essential, it must be said that without SDG16 none of the other SDGs would be sustainable. SDG16 can play a critical role in achieving other goals. This goal is as complex as it is significant, viewing security and peace and related political disputes are complex issues that need to be prioritised. However, Goal 16 – peace, justice and strong institutions – is not only about ending conflicts and mitigating violence incidence but also focuses on other important forms of conflicts, such as transparency, injustice, bribery and corruption, essential freedoms and participatory decision-making. Some prior studies have also affirmed such conclusions (Kumar and Roy, 2018; Jahanshahi et al., 2020; Takehara and Hasegawa, 2020).

Governments and international organisations should place SDG16 as a pre-requisite and at the heart of sustainable development. There must be unequivocal indicators to reflect prevailing peace throughout the world with the implementation of more effective means to counter the proliferation of mass destructive weapons, posing catastrophic risks to the entire planet. The unregulated international trade in conventional arms and using ballistic, nuclear, radiological, biological and chemical missiles cause serious security and humanitarian concerns. Arms sales and innovation in the field of weapons of mass destruction must be curbed. There should be global co-operation and responsible behaviour to ensure peace across the globe. This can be done by building international partnerships that bring together advocates of justice, peace and inclusive communities for addressing transnational forms of dispute, for example, arms flow and illicit financial flow. Stakeholders and world leaders must demonstrate a robust sense of commitment to implementing such an important policy. Yet, significant efforts to achieve global justice and peace are not readily apparent. SGD16 is a pre-requisite to sustaining other goals (see Figure 3), and SDGs by 2030 would not be maintained without inclusive peace on earth.

5.2 Refugees should be economically empowered

The Ukraine crisis has contributed to an increase in the number of refugees in the world. For instance, as of 24 May 2022, it is reported that 6.6 million refugees have left Ukraine (BBC News, 2022). The undeniable truth even in this 21st century is that international laws have failed to protect refugees to guarantee them their rights in which every country they are welcomed. It is common sense that the moment any war or disharmony is created in a country, the number of refugees will increase and therefore, international laws should have measures to adequately deal with and manage such situations without compromising the rights of the refugees.

The 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol are the main legal documents that have codified the legal rights of refugees. This convention and protocol uphold the principle of non-refoulement which is embedded in Article 33 of the convention, emphasising that a refugee must not be returned to a country in which they are faced with serious threats to their freedom or life and now this is a rule which is considered within customary international law. Other than the right of non-refoulement as stated in Article 33, the other rights provided to a refugee in the convention include: the right not to be expelled, except under certain, strictly defined conditions as provided in Article 32; the right not to be punished for illegal entry into the territory of a contracting state as provided in Article 31; the right to work as provided in Articles 17–19; the right to housing as provided in Article 21; the right to education as provided in Article 22; the right to public relief and assistance as provided in Article 23; the right to freedom of religion as provided in Article 4; the right to access to courts provided in Article 16; the right to freedom of movement within the territory as provided in Article 26; and the right to be issued identity and travel documents as provided in Articles 27 and 28.

From the Ukraine crisis and many other previous crises, it is evident that the extent to which the refugees are entitled to these rights guaranteed by the convention will practically depend on the political will of the respective country in which the refugees reside. Therefore, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) must co-ordinate with countries to standardize and streamline the procedures followed in enjoying these rights for refugees and to ensure that the economic empowerment of the refugees is guaranteed as quickly as possible. This can be achieved in a number of ways, for instance, by providing incentives to employers who hire refugees or providing funding to commence their own business, or to start their lives from scratch by getting access to build their life by acquiring a decent place to live which is not the bare minimum guaranteed under the convention. However, due to the influx of millions of refugees caused by the Ukraine crisis, there are several issues have been faced. Enríquez (2022) has identified four main challenges and uncertainties the EU countries have faced, such as logistics and co-ordination challenges; economic challenges both for the member states and the EU; integration challenges; and unanimous support for providing refuge.

In the 2019–2023 Global Strategy Concept Note for Refugee Livelihoods and Economic Inclusion published by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2018), it is stated that economic inclusion includes access to labour markets, finance, entrepreneurship and economic opportunities for all, including non-citizens, as well as vulnerable and underserved groups and their strategies in this regard, as summarised in Figure 4 which shows capital, interventions and outcomes. There is no doubt that to achieve financial inclusion among refugees even Islamic finance could be used (Putri et al., 2019; El Fadili, 2019; Kachkar, 2017). In this regard, for instance, it was reported in March 2022 that UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, Islamic Development Bank’s poverty alleviation arm and the Islamic Solidarity Fund for Development signed an agreement to inaugurate the Global Islamic Fund for Refugees, which is a Shariah (Islamic law) compliant way of mobilizing resources using an innovative and sustainable approach that will pave the way to assist millions of forcibly displaced people in line with the principles of Islamic philanthropy [United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 2022].

5.3 Resilient and sustainable food systems need to be put in place and energy transition is required

Importing food is not a sustainable food security system. As such, it is imperative to ensure that domestic countries could establish a resilient and sustainable food system in place that will ensure that because of volatility in food prices the number of poor and needy will increase or those who live in poverty are affected adversely. In this regard, food wastage and principles of circular food production need to be promoted to reduce the wastage of resources. According to Helland and Sörbö (2014), sustainable food security should include four aspects: adequate production of food; ability to get food and buy food; having required nutrition and safety; and ensuring all these conditions are present.

Circular food systems are considered effective and efficient systems for preserving the environment and achieving resource footprints (Vågsholm et al., 2020). In this system, the nutrients would be recycled (Vågsholm et al., 2020) and merging aquaculture and aquaponics is a good example of a circular food production system (Monsees et al., 2017). In the global strategic framework for food security and nutrition, it is stated that food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (Committee on World Food Security, 2014). There are four pillars of food security, namely, availability, access, utilization and stability (Committee on World Food Security, 2014). To ensure that a resilient and sustainable food system is put in place, small-scale food producers including women need access to agriculture-focused rural markets. Communities must be aware of nutritious food while providing them with irrigation systems and enabling infrastructure to produce and market their products, including some incentives for them to engage in the commercialisation of their products.

Not only this but emphasis also needs to be put on managing post-harvest food wastage, as food production standards should be developed while considering the adoption of technology in boosting the harvests in a safe environment. In this regard, even resilience and food security digital strategy plans could be adopted [United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2021]. The advantage of such adoption would provide farmers and those stakeholders in the agriculture sector to do their work efficiently and in quick manner. In Uganda, for instance, the Feed the Future Youth Leadership for Agriculture Activity partnered with Equator Seeds Limited (ESL) to procure an enterprise resource and accounting platform, a farmer information management and mobile money payment system, and digital scales in order to track inventory and payments across ESL’s value chain. As a result, it is reported that the efficiencies gained reduced costs associated with salary payments by 32% and led to 20% greater sales [United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2021, p. 6].

Even to provide resilience, technology could be used as an effective solution. For example, in Indonesia, AtmaGo – a social networking app – enables hyperlocal information sharing. Their initial focus was to connect users in disaster preparedness and recovery, but over time it has been developed into a tool for broader community engagement and resilience. In an evaluation made in 2018, it was revealed that, at a scale of 1 million users, actions taken by AtmaGo users based on early warnings led to USD$106m in avoided economic losses and over 6,000 years of healthy life saved per year [United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2021, p. 7]. Likewise, nutrition awareness and activities could also be disseminated using technology. A good example in this regard is the experience of Bangladesh through the USAID Nobo Jatra project, implemented by World Vision, which uses a number of digital tools in supporting pregnant and lactating women where cash transfers happen via mobile money and health messages are delivered by phone or via a listening device (integrated into a bracelet). The project data is collected with tablets and stored and managed in an online management information system [United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2021, p. 7].

The Ukraine conflict has created energy shocks within the world and there is a need to shift away from reliance on importing fuel from Europe or other countries and an energy transition is required. According to S&P Global (2020), energy transition refers to the shift of the global energy sector from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption which includes oil, natural gas and coal to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as lithium-ion batteries. To shift away from importing fuel from Europe or other countries, a practical and sustainable solution would be by exploring renewable energy options and ensuring that the respective countries could rely on such energy options in a sustainable manner. However, to have this option, the initial capital that needs to be invested and the tests that are required to be conducted in a timely manner, and in the long run, there will be advantages to doing so (McKinsey & Company, 2021).

6. Conclusion and implications

The Russia–Ukraine dispute, in all its dimensions, is having alarming ripple impacts on global economies already hit by the coronavirus outbreak and climate changes, with particularly tragic effects on developing communities. The massive humanitarian crisis and economic shock are major threats to the nations of the world. The 2030 Agenda for SDGs and its pledge to “leave no one behind” is a universal commitment to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable groups; however, the war in Ukraine is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the 2030 Agenda. Thus, this study aims to explore the repercussions of the conflict that impedes progress on SDGs worldwide.

The confluence of crises, dominated by COVID-19, conflicts and climate change, is causing spin-off impacts on the environment, health, food and nutrition, education, security and peace, putting the 2030 Agenda for SDGs in grave danger along with the very survival of humanity. The negative consequences of the Russia–Ukraine conflict extend far beyond the borders of Ukraine and Europe as a whole. The dispute has sent shockwaves throughout the world economy. Commodity prices, including energy, have increased sharply as uncertainty about supply disruptions has grown. Moreover, trade restrictions and sanctions have been imposed on Russian individuals, businesses and banks. Further, the war has sparked a massive refugee crisis, with over six million Ukrainians fleeing their country (at the time of writing). All of this is likely to contribute to greater uncertainty in the economy, among businesses, households and financial markets.

This research note could provide significant insights and information to leaders and stakeholders around the world in a number of ways:

• Put a stronger emphasis on SDG16 (peace and justice) as an absolute pre-requisite to sustaining the 2030 Agenda for SDGs. There must be unequivocal indicators to reflect prevailing peace throughout the world with the implementation of more effective means to counter the proliferation of mass destructive weapons, posing catastrophic risks to the entire planet. The unregulated international trade in conventional arms and using ballistic, nuclear, radiological, biological and chemical missiles cause serious security and humanitarian concerns. This can be done by building international partnerships that bring together advocates of justice, peace and inclusive communities for addressing transnational forms of dispute, for example, arms flow and illicit financial flow. Stakeholders and world leaders must demonstrate a robust sense of commitment to implementing such an important policy.

• Set out certain measures and rules in the 2030 Agenda for SDGs for the inclusion of refugees in national development plans. It is of the utmost importance for UNHCR to co-ordinate with countries to standardize and streamline the procedures followed in enjoying these rights for refugees and to ensure that the economic empowerment of the refugees is guaranteed as quickly as possible. This can be achieved in a number of ways, for instance, by providing incentives to employers who hire refugees or providing funding to commence their own business, or to start their lives from scratch by getting access to build their life by acquiring a decent place to live which is not the bare minimum guaranteed under the refugee convention.

• Develop resilient and sustainable food systems, and energy must be based on a just transition. To ensure that a resilient and sustainable food system is put in place, small-scale food producers including women need access to agriculture-focused rural markets. Communities must be aware of nutritious food while providing them with irrigation systems and enabling infrastructure to produce and market their products, including some incentives for them to engage in the commercialisation of their products.

Theoretically, this study is the first to analyse the threats the Russia–Ukraine dispute presents to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs. It serves as a springboard for future research by identifying patterns of war crises that have halted progress in achieving sustainable development worldwide. Empirical evidence needs to be conducted on the impact of this ongoing conflict on sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda.

Figures

Figure 1.

SDGs index during 2010–2021

Figure 2.

FAO food price index, 8 April 2022

Figure 3.

SDG16 is the heart of all SDGs

Figure 4.

Economic inclusion strategy of UNHCR