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Research on a novel fractional GM(α, n) model and its applications

Wenqing Wu (School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China) (V.C. and V.R. Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu, China)
Xin Ma (School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China) (State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China)
Yong Wang (School of Science, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China)
Yuanyuan Zhang (School of Science, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, China)
Bo Zeng (College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, China)

Grey Systems: Theory and Application

ISSN: 2043-9377

Article publication date: 20 June 2019

Issue publication date: 20 June 2019

304

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel multivariate fractional grey model termed GM(a, n) based on the classical GM(1, n) model. The new model can provide accurate prediction with more freedom, and enrich the content of grey theory.

Design/methodology/approach

The GM(α, n) model is systematically studied by using the grey modelling technique and the forward difference method. The optimal fractional order a is computed by the genetic algorithm. Meanwhile, a stochastic testing scheme is presented to verify the accuracy of the new GM(a, n) model.

Findings

The recursive expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the presented model are deduced. The GM(1, n), GM(a, 1) and GM(1, 1) models are special cases of the model. Computational results illustrate that the GM(a, n) model provides accurate prediction.

Research limitations/implications

The GM(a, n) model is used to predict China’s total energy consumption with the raw data from 2006 to 2016. The superiority of the GM(a, n) model is more freedom and better modelling by fractional derivative, which implies its high potential to be used in energy field.

Originality/value

It is the first time to investigate the multivariate fractional grey GM(α, n) model, apply it to study the effects of China’s economic growth and urbanization on energy consumption.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos 71771033, 71571157, 11601357), the Longshan academic talent research supporting programme of SWUST (No. 17LZXY20), the Open Fund (PLN 201710) of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation (Southwest Petroleum University), applied basic research programme of science and technology commission foundation of Sichuan province (2017JY0159), and the funding of V.C. & V.R. Key Lab of Sichuan Province Grant Numbers (SCVCVR2018.08VS, SCVCVR2018.10VS).

Citation

Wu, W., Ma, X., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y. and Zeng, B. (2019), "Research on a novel fractional GM(α, n) model and its applications", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 9 No. 3, pp. 356-373. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-11-2018-0052

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited

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