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Application of a novel grey forecasting model with time power term to predict China's GDP

Chong Liu (School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China)
Wanli Xie (Institute of EduInfo Science and Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China)
Tongfei Lao (School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China)
Yu-ting Yao (School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China)
Jun Zhang (School of Science, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China)

Grey Systems: Theory and Application

ISSN: 2043-9377

Article publication date: 3 August 2020

Issue publication date: 18 June 2021

256

Abstract

Purpose

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure a country's economic development. If the future development trend of a country's GDP can be accurately predicted, it will have a positive effect on the formulation and implementation of the country's future economic development policies. In order to explore the future development trend of China's GDP, the purpose of this paper is to establish a new grey forecasting model with time power term to forecast GDP.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the shortcomings of the traditional grey prediction model with time power term are found out through analysis, and then the generalized grey prediction model with time power term is established (abbreviated as PTGM (1,1, α) model). Secondly, the PTGM (1,1, α) model is improved by linear interpolation method, and the optimized PTGM (1,1, α) model is established (abbreviated as OPTGM (1,1, α) model), and the parameters of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model are solved by the quantum genetic algorithm. Thirdly, the advantage of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model over the traditional grey models is illustrated by two real cases. Finally the OPTGM (1,1, α) model is used to predict China's GDP from 2020 to 2029.

Findings

The OPTGM (1,1, α) model is more suitable for predicting China's GDP than other grey prediction models.

Originality/value

A new grey prediction model with time power term is proposed.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University (no.KJCX2019037;KJCX2019027);the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia (no.2018MS03047) ; the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Educational Science “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” 2019 Project (no.GJGH2019333); the Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Education and Teaching Reform Research Project (no. GZD201815).Conflicts of interest: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Citation

Liu, C., Xie, W., Lao, T., Yao, Y.-t. and Zhang, J. (2021), "Application of a novel grey forecasting model with time power term to predict China's GDP", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 343-357. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-05-2020-0065

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited

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