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Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight

Silvia Vicente Oliva (Centro Universitario de la Defensa, Zaragoza, Spain)
Angel Martinez-Sanchez (Dirección y Organización de Empresas, Universidad de Zaragoza Escuela de Ingenieria y Arquitectura, Zaragoza, Spain)


ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 2 November 2018

Issue publication date: 14 November 2018




This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise.


The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base.


Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods.


Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.



The authors would like to thank the academicians and managers who help us to design the measurement instrument as well as all the managers who offered insight information about their firms’ strategic processes. This research was supported by the Grant CUD-2014-SOC-02 financed by the University of Zaragoza and the University Centre of Defence.


Vicente Oliva, S. and Martinez-Sanchez, A. (2018), "Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight", Foresight, Vol. 20 No. 6, pp. 635-647.



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